A Bounce in Consumer Sentiment? Some Encouraging Numbers, Especially for Amazon & WalMart.

 

A survey just released by ChangeWave shows that sentiment on consumer spending may have finally bottomed after a prolonged slowdown.  But they also cautioned that this tiny uptick in their data may be shortlived, much like their May ’08 data following the tax rebate checks.

That being said, their Jan ’09 survey of almost 2,800 U.S. consumers  said that although fifty-seven percent of U.S. respondents said they’ll spend less during the next 90 days than they did a year ago – that is still three points better than last month’s December survey.  Better still, another 13% said they’ll actually spend more, which is two points better than last month.  Finally, 12% said they think the economy will improve in the next 90 days (up 3 points), and the 56% who said they think the economy will worsen during the next 90 days is still 10 points better than the December low.

What does this mean for online & retail?

For the third consecutive survey, ChangeWave indicates that in the home entertainment and network shopping category Amazon.com (+1 to 24%) is the clear momentum leader.   On the flip side, brick & click retailers like Best Buy (-6  to 37%) and bankruptcy-headed Circuit City (-2 to 7%) show significant weakness going forward.

Finally, for retail stores ChangeWave’s consumer surveys have consistently pointed to two retail winners since Feb ‘07: Wal-Mart and Costco (both +6).   The greatest weakness going forward is among traditional retailers, led by Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) (-14), Sears (SHLD) (-12), Macy’s (M) (-12) and JC Penney (JCP) (-10).

For the majority of Americans who are still spending less, the primary reasons remain reduced household  income, saving money, and debt reduction.