Is online advertising failing or is it just the recession?

Eric Clemons has just written a very thoughtful article on “Why Advertising Is Failing On The Internet” on TechCrunch. His high level argument is that the Internet shatters all forms of advertising because it allows consumers to bypass them. He provides evidence for why people don’t trust ads, why they don’t want them, and why they don’t need them. He then goes on to illustrate how the Internet provides ways for people to meaningfully get the information they need without them.

He then moves quickly from advertising to the ecommerce space where he talks about new monetization models around selling real things, selling virtual things, selling virtual experiences, and selling misdirection (a subject where he expresses a lack of faith in Google’s revenue model and sustainability.)

Unfortunately, he falls short in the end of providing a list of concrete replacements for advertising. Can you really imagine a world without ads? Surely they will exist, perhaps in different forms, but they will be omnipresent.  In addition, he sites declining online ad revenues to support his thesis at a time when the culprit may be nothing more than the current recession. Whatever the outcome, his sweeping approach to the landscape of online advertising bears reading.

A Bounce in Consumer Sentiment? Some Encouraging Numbers, Especially for Amazon & WalMart.

 

A survey just released by ChangeWave shows that sentiment on consumer spending may have finally bottomed after a prolonged slowdown.  But they also cautioned that this tiny uptick in their data may be shortlived, much like their May ’08 data following the tax rebate checks.

hand-moneyThat being said, their Jan ’09 survey of almost 2,800 U.S. consumers  said that although fifty-seven percent of U.S. respondents said they’ll spend less during the next 90 days than they did a year ago – that is still three points better than last month’s December survey.  Better still, another 13% said they’ll actually spend more, which is two points better than last month.  Finally, 12% said they think the economy will improve in the next 90 days (up 3 points), and the 56% who said they think the economy will worsen during the next 90 days is still 10 points better than the December low.

What does this mean for online & retail?

For the third consecutive survey, ChangeWave indicates that in the home entertainment and network shopping category Amazon.com (+1 to 24%) is the clear momentum leader.   On the flip side, brick & click retailers like Best Buy (-6  to 37%) and bankruptcy-headed Circuit City (-2 to 7%) show significant weakness going forward.

Finally, for retail stores ChangeWave’s consumer surveys have consistently pointed to two retail winners since Feb ‘07: Wal-Mart and Costco (both +6).   The greatest weakness going forward is among traditional retailers, led by Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) (-14), Sears (SHLD) (-12), Macy’s (M) (-12) and JC Penney (JCP) (-10).

For the majority of Americans who are still spending less, the primary reasons remain reduced household  income, saving money, and debt reduction.

e-Merchants: Gas savings going to groceries, savings, and debt reduction – not online

As reported by Research Brief , the results of nationwide research from retail analytics firm Precima indicates that groceries are the top item on which U.S. consumers are spending their savings from lower gas prices.  Of the 3,013 consumers surveyed, 48% said they’re spending it on groceries, 42% said saving, 37% holiday gift buying, 30% paying off credit cards, 10% entertainment, and 14% said other. 

What this means is that savings are not being shifted to traditional online buying categories.  During an economic dowturn consumers will shift their spending to staple goods and asset protection (like food, savings and credit card reduction.)  Retailers need to factor in these variables when considering their budget forecasts for 2009.

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